{"id":669,"date":"2017-08-10T01:57:19","date_gmt":"2017-08-10T01:57:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wdqnt.wpengine.com\/?post_type=idea&p=669"},"modified":"2022-04-25T01:52:22","modified_gmt":"2022-04-25T01:52:22","slug":"the-age-of-prediction","status":"publish","type":[9],"link":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/zh-hant\/ideas\/the-age-of-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"The Age of Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":661,"template":"","tags":[92,93,16],"topic":[21],"team":[],"class_list":["post-669","idea","type-idea","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-big-data","tag-prediction","tag-technology","type-leadership","topic-science-technology"],"acf":{"authors":[{"name":"Igor Tulchinsky","author_link":{"ID":183,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2022-03-23 13:19:01","post_date_gmt":"2022-03-23 13:19:01","post_content":"","post_title":"Igor Tulchinsky","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"igor-tulchinsky","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-12-16 15:31:10","post_modified_gmt":"2025-12-16 15:31:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/wdqnt.wpengine.com\/?post_type=people&p=183","menu_order":0,"post_type":"people","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}}],"header_image":{"ID":2009,"id":2009,"title":"Futuristic,Infinite,Space,Background.,Concept,Of,Data,Transfer,In,Cyberspace.","filename":"1660x1072px-Hero-Age-of-Prediction-1920229289-copy.jpg","filesize":1402109,"url":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1660x1072px-Hero-Age-of-Prediction-1920229289-copy.jpg","link":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/zh-hant\/ideas\/the-age-of-prediction\/futuristicinfinitespacebackground-conceptofdatatransferincyberspace-2\/","alt":"","author":"5","description":"","caption":"Futuristic infinite space background. Concept of data transfer in cyberspace. cyber tunnel consisting of moving glowing points. universe with stardust. Hi-tech illustration. 3d rendering.","name":"futuristicinfinitespacebackground-conceptofdatatransferincyberspace-2","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":669,"date":"2022-04-20 01:30:59","modified":"2022-04-20 01:30:59","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/jpeg","type":"image","subtype":"jpeg","icon":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":1906,"height":1072,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1660x1072px-Hero-Age-of-Prediction-1920229289-copy-150x150.jpg","thumbnail-width":150,"thumbnail-height":150,"medium":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1660x1072px-Hero-Age-of-Prediction-1920229289-copy-400x225.jpg","medium-width":400,"medium-height":225,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1660x1072px-Hero-Age-of-Prediction-1920229289-copy-768x432.jpg","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":432,"large":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1660x1072px-Hero-Age-of-Prediction-1920229289-copy-1024x576.jpg","large-width":1024,"large-height":576,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1660x1072px-Hero-Age-of-Prediction-1920229289-copy-1536x864.jpg","1536x1536-width":1536,"1536x1536-height":864,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1660x1072px-Hero-Age-of-Prediction-1920229289-copy.jpg","2048x2048-width":1906,"2048x2048-height":1072}},"synopsis":"

In a world where data is growing exponentially, increasing complexity has the potential to overwhelm those who don\u2019t have the technology to try to make sense of it.<\/h2>\n","article_content":"

When I started trading, more than 20 years ago, I had just one alpha and I guarded it with my life. As I write this, my firm will soon pass 6 million alphas \u2014 i.e.<\/em>, algorithms or models that seek to predict the prices of securities \u2014 and I no longer have to worry about any of them like I used to.<\/p>\n

The exponential growth in the number of alphas at WorldQuant is representative of a much larger trend. Each day the world gives birth to 2.5 quintillion bytes of data, created by everything from satellites and social media to credit cards and smartphones. Research firm IDC<\/a>\u00a0forecasts that the total volume of data will grow from 44 zettabytes in 2020 to 180 zettabytes by 2025.<\/p>\n

In a 2012 report titled\u00a0\u201cBig Data, Big Impact: New Possibilities for International Development,\u201d<\/a>\u00a0the World Economic Forum outlined how government organizations and companies could turn data into an economic development tool. Five years later Big Data is old news. What\u2019s new is prediction.<\/p>\n

For anything you\u2019re trying to predict \u2014 securities prices, retail sales, unemployment, the weather \u2014 the amount of data available is growing exponentially. As a result, following certain mathematical laws, you get a linear increase in predictability as long as the data continues to grow at a nonlinear rate. All things held constant, everything will become more and more predictable from the perspective of the data.<\/p>\n

But there are countervailing forces at work. The exponential growth in data is making the world increasingly complex, as the frequency of events accelerates and as the world gets more and more chaotic geopolitically. Even though people can predict events with greater accuracy, everything is getting more complicated. Unless you\u2019re able to predict things better, the complexity is going to overwhelm you.<\/p>\n

Technology is critical for success in the age of prediction. Organizations that can effectively employ machine learning and artificial intelligence to analyze all this data will have an advantage over their less sophisticated peers. People will be vital to the process. You need lots of people with lots of different ideas and opinions, because the key to better prediction is combining many different models. Once you have the people, you need the ability to test ideas quickly and easily. Here simulation technology plays a key role. Machine learning and AI can help develop more models, amplifying the humans at the center of the process. Instead of producing one model, a human aided by technology can produce thousands of them.<\/p>\n

The age of prediction is not some far-off idea. It\u2019s already having a big impact. For companies, it is improving manufacturing efficiency. For WorldQuant, it enhances our ability to deliver quality returns to investors. For predictive medicine, like the\u00a0research initiative\u00a0we recently launched in partnership with\u00a0Weill Cornell Medicine<\/a>, it is saving lives.<\/p>\n

Welcome to the future.<\/p>\n

Igor Tulchinsky<\/span><\/strong> is Founder, Chairman and CEO of WorldQuant.<\/em><\/p>\n","endnotes":"","disclaimer":"

Thought Leadership articles are prepared by and are the property of WorldQuant, LLC, and are being made available for informational and educational purposes only. This article is not intended to relate to any specific investment strategy or product, nor does this article constitute investment advice or convey an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or other financial products. In addition, the information contained in any article is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal or tax advice. WorldQuant makes no warranties or representations, express or implied, regarding the accuracy or adequacy of any information, and you accept all risks in relying on such information. The views expressed herein are solely those of WorldQuant as of the date of this article and are subject to change without notice. No assurances can be given that any aims, assumptions, expectations and\/or goals described in this article will be realized or that the activities described in the article did or will continue at all or in the same manner as they were conducted during the period covered by this article. WorldQuant does not undertake to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein. WorldQuant and its affiliates are involved in a wide range of securities trading and investment activities, and may have a significant financial interest in one or more securities or financial products discussed in the articles.<\/p>\n","ideas_panel":{"ideas_panel":{"heading":"Keep reading","subheading":"","articles":[{"ID":666,"post_author":"5","post_date":"2018-05-04 01:46:54","post_date_gmt":"2018-05-04 01:46:54","post_content":"","post_title":"The Artificial Intelligence Gambit","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-artificial-intelligence-gambit","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2022-04-25 01:44:46","post_modified_gmt":"2022-04-25 01:44:46","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/wdqnt.wpengine.com\/?post_type=idea&p=666","menu_order":0,"post_type":"idea","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":664,"post_author":"5","post_date":"2020-02-13 01:38:52","post_date_gmt":"2020-02-13 01:38:52","post_content":"","post_title":"Lessons Learned from Apollo","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"lessons-learned-from-apollo","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2022-04-29 16:49:13","post_modified_gmt":"2022-04-29 16:49:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/wdqnt.wpengine.com\/?post_type=idea&p=664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"idea","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":671,"post_author":"5","post_date":"2017-10-27 02:04:59","post_date_gmt":"2017-10-27 02:04:59","post_content":"","post_title":"Meeting the Challenge of the Quantasaurus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"meeting-the-challenge-of-the-quantasaurus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2022-04-25 01:50:06","post_modified_gmt":"2022-04-25 01:50:06","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/wdqnt.wpengine.com\/?post_type=idea&p=671","menu_order":0,"post_type":"idea","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"see_more_link":""}},"pdf_file":false},"yoast_head":"\nThe Age of Prediction - WorldQuant<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/ideas\/the-age-of-prediction\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_TW\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Age of Prediction - WorldQuant\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/ideas\/the-age-of-prediction\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WorldQuant\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WorldQuantCareers\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-04-25T01:52:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1660x1072px-Hero-Age-of-Prediction-1920229289-copy.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1906\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1072\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u9810\u4f30\u95b1\u8b80\u6642\u9593\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 \u5206\u9418\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.worldquant.com\\\/ideas\\\/the-age-of-prediction\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.worldquant.com\\\/ideas\\\/the-age-of-prediction\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Age of Prediction - 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