{"id":1771,"date":"2022-09-20T18:51:32","date_gmt":"2022-09-20T18:51:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/?post_type=idea&#038;p=1771"},"modified":"2022-09-29T14:13:01","modified_gmt":"2022-09-29T14:13:01","slug":"cryptos-identity-crisis","status":"publish","type":[9],"link":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/ko\/ideas\/cryptos-identity-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Crypto\u2019s Identity Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":1767,"template":"","tags":[74,75,73,122],"topic":[21],"team":[],"class_list":["post-1771","idea","type-idea","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-bitcoin","tag-blockchain","tag-cryptocurrency","tag-defi","type-leadership","topic-science-technology"],"acf":{"authors":[{"name":"Medy Kurniady","author_link":{"ID":1773,"post_author":"5","post_date":"2022-09-20 18:23:50","post_date_gmt":"2022-09-20 18:23:50","post_content":"","post_title":"Medy Kurniady","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"medy-kurniady","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2022-09-20 18:23:50","post_modified_gmt":"2022-09-20 18:23:50","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/?post_type=people&#038;p=1773","menu_order":0,"post_type":"people","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}},{"name":"Awa Njie","author_link":{"ID":1772,"post_author":"5","post_date":"2022-09-20 18:23:05","post_date_gmt":"2022-09-20 18:23:05","post_content":"","post_title":"Awa Njie","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"awa-njie","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2022-09-20 18:23:05","post_modified_gmt":"2022-09-20 18:23:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/?post_type=people&#038;p=1772","menu_order":0,"post_type":"people","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}}],"header_image":{"ID":1769,"id":1769,"title":"Man,In,Front,Of,Multiple,Doors,.,Life,Changing,Decision","filename":"1600x1072_Hero_Crypto-Identity-Crisis.jpg","filesize":1861084,"url":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/1600x1072_Hero_Crypto-Identity-Crisis.jpg","link":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/ko\/maninfrontofmultipledoors-lifechangingdecision-3-2\/","alt":"","author":"5","description":"","caption":"Man in front of multiple doors . Life changing decision and difficult choices concept . This is a 3d render illustration .","name":"maninfrontofmultipledoors-lifechangingdecision-3-2","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":0,"date":"2022-09-20 14:59:43","modified":"2022-09-20 14:59:43","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/jpeg","type":"image","subtype":"jpeg","icon":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":1660,"height":1070,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/1600x1072_Hero_Crypto-Identity-Crisis-150x150.jpg","thumbnail-width":150,"thumbnail-height":150,"medium":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/1600x1072_Hero_Crypto-Identity-Crisis-400x258.jpg","medium-width":400,"medium-height":258,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/1600x1072_Hero_Crypto-Identity-Crisis-768x495.jpg","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":495,"large":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/1600x1072_Hero_Crypto-Identity-Crisis-1024x660.jpg","large-width":1024,"large-height":660,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/1600x1072_Hero_Crypto-Identity-Crisis-1536x990.jpg","1536x1536-width":1536,"1536x1536-height":990,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.worldquant.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/1600x1072_Hero_Crypto-Identity-Crisis.jpg","2048x2048-width":1660,"2048x2048-height":1070}},"synopsis":"<h2>Cryptocurrencies have experienced many changes since Bitcoin emerged in 2009. The latest slump has once again raised questions about their place in the world.<\/h2>\n","article_content":"<p>In April 2022, Fidelity Investments became the first financial services company to allow retirement savers to include Bitcoin in their 401(k) accounts,<sup>1<\/sup> evidence of just how widely cryptocurrencies have been adopted in recent years. Fidelity is the largest retirement plan provider in the U.S., managing employee benefit programs for almost 23,000 companies and some 40 million individual investors, with a combined $11.8 trillion in assets. The big investment manager is not new to cryptocurrencies; in 2018, it launched Fidelity Digital Assets to provide cryptocurrency products and services to institutional investors.<\/p>\n<p>Early this year there were other signs that crypto had gone mainstream. Investors bought and sold the currencies in large amounts.<sup>2<\/sup> Crypto advertising was ubiquitous. Crypto.com, a Singapore-based exchange, rolled out an aggressive television marketing campaign and bought the naming rights to Los Angeles\u2019s Staples Center; Bahamas-based crypto exchange FTX put its name on the Miami Heat\u2019s arena and the uniforms of Major League Baseball\u2019s umpires.<sup>3<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>Evidence of crypto\u2019s adoption abounded. Exchanges converted fiat currencies into virtual currencies, and bitcoin ATM kiosks appeared in stores. Elon Musk not only tweeted regularly about crypto, his electric car company, Tesla, accepted bitcoin as payment. PayPal offered crypto functionality, El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender, and U.S. regulators approved four Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Cryptocurrencies were even used to raise money to help the Ukraine military after Russia\u2019s invasion,<sup>4<\/sup> and they funded the EndSARS demonstration against police brutality in Nigeria.<sup>5<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>That boom has since faded. And crypto, mired in a downdraft, struggles with large and fundamental questions: What will crypto look like as it grows up? And how will it fit into the already existing financial, data, accounting and regulatory systems? As European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde told a Dutch TV interviewer in late May, crypto assets \u201care worth nothing, based on nothing, and there is no underlying asset to act as an anchor of safety.\u201d<sup>6<\/sup> Even Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX and a recent investor in Robinhood Markets and troubled crypto lender BlockFi, told the <em>Financial Times<\/em> that Bitcoin was not capable of scaling up sufficiently to handle millions of transactions. \u201cThe bitcoin network is not a payments network or a scaling network,\u201d he said.<sup>7<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>Lagarde and Bankman-Fried were responding to a significant crisis in crypto: By early May 2022, $1 trillion in the currency\u2019s value had evaporated, and the slump deepened from there. In mid-June, the price of bitcoin, which had increasingly mirrored the broader stock market, fell below $20,000, a decline of more than 70 percent in just seven months. More perilously, some stablecoins \u2014 crypto tokens priced at $1 a share \u2014 broke their dollar peg and imploded. One stablecoin, TerraUSD, collapsed to mere cents on the dollar, sending panic through the ranks of other stablecoins, including one of the largest, Tether. And big crypto lender Celsius Network first suspended withdrawals, then declared bankruptcy, as did a smaller lender, Voyager Digital.<\/p>\n<p>The recent slump is part of a larger revaluing of assets as risk has risen throughout the financial system as a result of inflation, rising interest rates, increased regulation, war, an energy crisis and post-pandemic growth concerns. In the markets, crypto is just another risk asset responding to the surge in economic and financial risk by falling in price. Crypto\u2019s deepening interconnections with the conventional financial system, and its rapid growth (though it still remains far smaller than mainstream asset classes), stir fears of macroeconomic instabilities and systemic risks.<sup>8<\/sup> Not surprisingly, various efforts to regulate crypto have gained momentum, reining in a financial technology whose original purpose was to free itself from governments.<\/p>\n<p>This, then, is a good time to revisit the debate over crypto, which has been blessed (or burdened) with an array of different functions since Bitcoin\u2019s launch during the 2008\u2013\u201909 financial crisis. It has been treated as a currency, a medium of exchange, a store of value, a speculative instrument, a payment system, a technology for secure storage, an instrument of financial liberation, a platform serving various emerging metaverses, a decentralized trading platform, and even the next incarnation of the internet, so-called Web 3.0. That\u2019s a lot for a new set of technologies to support, reconcile, and justify.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Evolution and Revolution <\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>The crypto landscape has evolved rapidly. As of August, more than 20,000 cryptocurrencies were in circulation, ranging from Bitcoin to thousands of different \u201caltcoins\u201d (including stablecoins, meme coins, and security, governance and service tokens). Between January 2020 and January 2021, the number of cryptocurrency wallets in use worldwide increased 45 percent, to an estimated <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/business\/2021\/10\/07\/new-chainalysis-report-reveals-whos-leading-the-world-in-crypto-adoption\/\">66 million<\/a>. Bitcoin accounted for 40 to 50 percent of the total value of all cryptocurrencies, compared with 70 percent in January 2021<sup>9<\/sup> \u2014 a decline attributable to the increasing popularity of other altcoins.<sup>10<\/sup> In 2021, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimated that owning a cryptocurrency during one year increased the probability of owning crypto the following year by 50 percent.<\/p>\n<p>The extraordinary growth of the crypto ecosystem has been driven by technological innovation and fueled by rising institutional and retail investor interest. According to blockchain data platform <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.chainalysis.com\/reports\/2021-global-crypto-adoption-index\/#:~:text=Global%20cryptocurrency%20adoption%20is%20skyrocketing&amp;text=At%20the%20end%20of%20Q2%202021%2C%20that%20total%20score%20stands,881%25%20in%20the%20last%20year\">Chainanalysis.com<\/a>, global adoption of crypto increased by more than 2,300 percent between third quarter 2019 and second quarter 2021. The growth has nurtured the emergence of decentralized finance (DeFi): a global network of secure distributed digital ledgers, in which financial transaction data is recorded in multiple places at the same time without the intervention of intermediaries.<sup>11<\/sup> DeFi works off \u201csmart contracts\u201d \u2014 programs stored on a blockchain that run when predetermined conditions are met.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s also been a growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies for payment purposes in both developed and emerging markets. In the developed world, transacting through the blockchain offers the promise of speed, efficiency and a degree of anonymity. In the developing world, it provides a way around exclusionary legacy financial systems<sup>12<\/sup> and a lack of access to centralized exchanges. As a result, peer-to-peer (P2P) crypto exchanges have developed to facilitate cross-border transactions, enabling, in theory, lower transaction costs, faster processing and high levels of privacy.<sup>13,14<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>Still, DeFi and payments are only two aspects of crypto. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are primarily viewed as investment products. These currencies now include a dense array of investible instruments, technologies and structures. However, no one really knows where this diverse asset class or the broader financial technology is going, or whether it\u2019s sustainable over the long run.<\/p>\n<p>In recent years, crypto adoption in North America, Western Europe and East Asia has been driven largely by institutional investment. Although advanced economies such as the U.S. are technologically better prepared for the adoption of crypto assets, emerging market economies have taken to crypto more quickly. Nine out of 10 major adopters are emerging market countries.<sup>15<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>Crypto usage tends to be higher in countries with a history of financial instability or where barriers to traditional financial products, such as bank accounts, are high. Developing economies suffer from bouts of inflation and fast-changing exchange rates, expensive banking systems, financial restrictions and regulatory uncertainties, especially the existence (or threat) of capital controls.<sup>16<\/sup> Currency devaluations may prompt individuals to buy cryptocurrency on P2P platforms to preserve their savings. In these countries, cryptocurrencies are often used for cross-border transactions such as remittances or to purchase goods.<sup>17<\/sup> Africa has the largest proportion of retail crypto users with transactions under $10,000; Nigeria is one of the biggest crypto remittance markets.<\/p>\n<p>For most of the years following Bitcoin\u2019s creation, crypto prices moved independently of stocks and sometimes even seemed to trade in opposition to stocks \u2014 so-called negative correlation. That was long viewed as a virtue, allowing bitcoin to act as a hedge, like gold, against equity downdrafts. But that changed in 2020. Through the initial pandemic market plunge, steep recovery and economic turbulence, Bitcoin and other digital tokens swung from a negative to a positive correlation with stocks.<sup>18<\/sup> Today, Bitcoin is even more tightly linked to stocks. According to Wolfe Research, the exception is a handful of so-called meme tokens, such as Dogecoin or Shiba Inu; they don\u2019t appear to be correlated, and Shiba Inu has a negative correlation.<sup>19<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>Why has this shift occurred? We will explore this further below, but currently the most popular thesis is that mainstream adoption has nurtured a growing interconnectedness between Bitcoin and traditional asset classes. That\u2019s just a hypothesis, however, because Bitcoin\u2019s history is relatively brief and crypto has never experienced a period of high inflation, flagging growth, and rate shocks \u2014 up until now.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Birth of Bitcoin<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>If the public knows anything about crypto, it\u2019s Bitcoin. In fact, \u201cbitcoin\u201d is often used as shorthand for the larger crypto ecosystem. Bitcoin is the oldest surviving cryptocurrency and remains the biggest by value. Launched in 2009 as an open-source software application, Bitcoin initially was embraced by computer experts, political activists, and other groups that had lost faith in established financial institutions. In the early days, individuals \u201cmined\u201d Bitcoin as a hobby, completing calculations to \u201cearn\u201d new Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>Rising adoption drove an increase in the number and size of Bitcoin miners, necessitating extensive computing resources and more energy-intensive mining processes. New mining facilities led to overloaded energy networks and occasional outages. Bitcoin mining used electricity at a rate exceeding the entire annual energy consumption of Egypt, Norway, Poland and Ukraine,<sup>20<\/sup> consuming some 0.63 percent of total global electricity and 0.21 percent of total global energy. That heavy electricity consumption spurred significant regulation. China banned Bitcoin mining in June 2021, driving miners to countries with fewer regulations, including the U.S. But even in the U.S., regulators including the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have promised a raft of new rules for the industry, a development that\u2019s grown likelier as the losses and failures have mounted.<\/p>\n<p>Much of Bitcoin\u2019s popularity has stemmed from its status as a potential store of value \u2014 a kind of digital gold. In theory, Bitcoin\u2019s value has been driven by the reality that over time only 21 million coins will be mined. In December 2021, International Data Group analyst Madana Prathap estimated that 90 percent of all Bitcoins had already been created and that new Bitcoins were unlikely after 2140.<sup>21<\/sup> Another expert, crypto author Roy Fantass, predicted that 99 percent of all Bitcoins would be mined by 2032.<sup>22<\/sup> This finite supply and rising demand appeared sure to drive up Bitcoin prices over time.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, rising Bitcoin prices are indeed part of the cryptocurrency\u2019s trading history, though that history has also been characterized by significant volatility. Bitcoin was first used in a commercial transaction in 2010, when two pizzas were bought for 10,000 bitcoin. The value of 10,000 bitcoin had increased to approximately $35 million (at $3,500 a bitcoin) by December 2018, risen to around <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/articles\/decoding-crypto%3A-what-was-the-first-cryptocurrency-and-who-created-it-2021-08-18\">$350 million<\/a> by August 2021 ($35,000 per bitcoin) and climbed to $670 million ($67,000 per bitcoin)\u00a0by\u00a0November 2021. A 2022 research report by ARK Investments argued that the price of one bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030.<sup>23<\/sup><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Bitcoin as Investment Product<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Recent developments have made it more difficult for both individual and institutional investors to ignore Bitcoin. In late 2020, Deloitte estimated the number of U.S. businesses using Bitcoin, excluding bitcoin ATMs, at more than 2,300.<sup>24<\/sup> In the first quarter of this year, BTCS, a company focused on blockchain technology, paid the first-ever bitcoin dividend to its shareholders.<sup>25<\/sup> As of early 2022, there were between 150 and 200 active crypto hedge funds; PwC says high-net-worth individuals and family offices are the largest investors in these hedge funds.<sup>26<\/sup> To offer investors ways to buy and store Bitcoin and other digital assets, global banks including JPMorgan Chase, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have started bitcoin-linked funds.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin may be the most popular cryptocurrency, but it is just one of a growing number of instruments and vehicles that possess varying attributes of liquidity, currencies, property, securities, and even art. Altcoins are attempts to \u201cimprove\u201d one aspect or other of Bitcoin. Defining what these coins and tokens are will determine the nature of crypto regulation and the bodies that undertake it. The BIS has described the motivation for the creation of cryptocurrencies as the desire to develop an alternative to fiat money and commercial banking, with the goal of creating a new form of exchange, resistant to debasement and censorship by governments and financial institutions. Cryptocurrencies differ from fiat currencies because of their unique combination of features: anonymity, independence and the blockchain\u2019s ability to time-stamp transactions, making them irreversible.<sup>27<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>This complexity poses a significant regulatory challenge. Increasingly, governments are trying to grasp the benefits and risks of digital currencies, to counter competition for their fiat currencies and to provide faster and more efficient means of payment. A variety of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have been launched by, among others, China (with its digital currency electronic payment, or DCEP, and its digital renminbi, or e-CNY, the former a decentralized digital currency, the latter issued by the central bank and not used on the blockchain), Sweden (e-krona), the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (digital Eastern Caribbean dollar, or DXCD), the Central Bank of the Bahamas (sand dollar)<sup>28<\/sup> and Nigeria (e-naira).<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Cryptocurrency Benefits and Drawbacks<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Through the use of blockchain\u2019s distributed ledger technology, cryptocurrency systems are designed to protect users\u2019 data from manipulation. Users can send only cryptocurrencies they have access to; this allows valid transfers without a centralized, trusted intermediary. Indeed, freedom from intermediaries \u2014 including lawmakers and central banks \u2014 has become a powerful ideological argument for the technology.<\/p>\n<p>Cryptocurrencies provide features not available with fiat currency. For example, programmable money \u2014 that is, digital currency \u2014 can enable real-time and accurate revenue-sharing while enhancing transparency that facilitates back-office reconciliation.<sup>29<\/sup> Cryptos are best known as investment vehicles, with owners buying and selling as their assets\u2019 value rises and falls. Bitcoin has been declared a digital hedging instrument against country-specific risk, inflation or the breakdown of traditional financial assets such as stocks and bonds.<sup>30<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>With its blockchain technology, Bitcoin sidesteps intermediaries like clearinghouses, which makes it independent of sovereign risk.<sup>31<\/sup> Bitcoin transfers can be made without reliance on counterparties or trust relationships and without getting authorization from a company or government.<\/p>\n<p>But crypto has its dark side, which often seems inextricably linked to its virtues. Its anonymity makes it attractive to those operating outside the law, enabling money laundering, arms and drug sales, and ransomware. Thefts of digital wallets occur regularly. Regulatory arbitrage can arise<sup>32<\/sup> from P2P platforms offering products that exist outside legal frameworks, and this can lead to the buildup of risk. Because of the relatively unregulated nature of crypto markets, significant disruption driven by cryptocurrency price volatility may lie beyond the control of central banks and regulatory authorities.<sup>33<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>Crypto\u2019s anonymity and pseudo-anonymity have been seen as a much-touted strength, but they prevent transactions from being monitored. A tax authority, for instance, can\u2019t levy a tax if it doesn\u2019t know who has entered into a taxable transaction.<sup>34 <\/sup>The U.S. Internal Revenue Service has issued guidance that virtual currencies should be treated as property (rather than currency) for tax purposes, but that doesn\u2019t really resolve the larger problem. Regulators such as the SEC have released investor alerts and press releases on charges against scams and frauds, and have studied more sweeping regulatory reforms, but it\u2019s unclear whether the SEC or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will take a lead in overseeing crypto.<\/p>\n<p>With no central authority to verify transactions, many investors have been skeptical of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and reluctant to use them. Though cryptocurrencies continue to gain some acceptance as a payment option, price volatility has discouraged their use in purchasing goods and services.<sup>35<\/sup> In fact, while volatility has fed speculative trading, it has limited crypto assets\u2019 use as a means of payment, store of value or unit of account.<sup>36<\/sup><\/p>\n<h3><strong>The Correlation Problem <\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Crypto has been used most prominently as an investment, trading, diversification and hedging vehicle, but in the past year or so all these uses have been questioned. One sign of trouble can be found in crypto\u2019s shift from a negative to a positive correlation with stocks. As the market value of bitcoin rose at the end of 2017, its performance showed little correlation with stock indices. But by the second quarter of 2020 that correlation had flipped, with both bitcoin and U.S. stock prices rising against the backdrop of easy global financial conditions and increased investor risk appetite, according to Tara Iyer, an economist at the International Monetary Fund.<sup>37<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>Since then, bitcoin has continued to show strong positive correlation with macro assets, including U.S. tech stocks, crude oil and government bonds \u2014 albeit with a trading pattern that some have compared to the sawtooth haircut of Bart Simpson.<sup>38<\/sup> For example, on September 26, 2021, the price per Bitcoin was $42,376 and the S&amp;P 500 was at 4455. On November 9, 2021, Bitcoin was up to $67,413 and the S&amp;P hit 4685. On January 22, 2022, Bitcoin fell to $35,471 and the S&amp;P fell to 4397. Bitcoin\u2019s intraday price volatility became more closely correlated with the volatility of the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices than in 2017\u2013\u201919. The same applied to emerging markets, where the volatility correlation between bitcoin and the MSCI index increased between the pre- and post-pandemic periods.<\/p>\n<p>One explanation for the positive correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks is that both are affected by macro factors such as interest rates and inflation. With rates very low, crypto and risk assets like tech stocks can justify high valuations. But with inflation pushing rates higher, the valuation of risk assets has come under pressure as the time required to meet growth targets has lengthened. Over time, tech stocks, of course, reflect the underlying growth of tech companies. For the most part, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies lack that underlying source of value. They\u2019re purely speculative, which in turn feeds volatility.<\/p>\n<p>Despite these shifting correlations, fluctuations in Bitcoin often appear idiosyncratic. Many factors play a role in this volatility, including (but not limited to) institutional adoption, retail investor speculation, regulatory changes and excitement around new technologies.<sup>39<\/sup> Part of that idiosyncratic risk is that crypto is still new, still evolving and still going through adoption. Whatever the reason, this high and mostly idiosyncratic volatility can, over time, make Bitcoin a risky bet and difficult to include in multiasset portfolios or use as a hedging or diversification tool.<\/p>\n<p>According to the IMF, this positive correlation has the potential to feed financial contagion \u2014 the rapid spread of distress from one asset class to another. The growing interconnectedness between bitcoin and more-traditional asset classes may facilitate the transmission of shocks that can destabilize financial markets. Indeed, just as the Federal Reserve was beginning to engage in quantitative tightening in June 2022 \u2014 draining some $9 trillion in assets off its balance sheet \u2014 Bloomberg\u2019s Market Live Pulse (MLIV), a weekly survey of investors, tagged bitcoin and tech stocks as the two risk assets most vulnerable to the end of ultra-cheap money.<sup>40<\/sup> Spillover risk tends to increase in times of market volatility, such as the March 2020 market turmoil, when stocks fell 35 percent and bitcoin plunged nearly 50 percent as the pandemic hit, and the broad declines of 2022.<\/p>\n<p>The positive correlation between cryptocurrencies and the S&amp;P 500 makes Bitcoin less useful as a portfolio diversification tool in times of crisis.<sup>41<\/sup> Historically, Bitcoin has served at times as a way to diversify from, say, stocks, though this was episodic due to the volatility in bitcoin prices.<sup>42<\/sup> In a 2021 report, Goldman Sachs argued that because Bitcoin\u2019s history was too short to cover a full business cycle or period of high inflationary pressures, it was unclear how Bitcoin would perform in a high-stress environment. Now we\u2019re beginning to get more information.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin may have lost its ability to serve as a gold-like safe haven vehicle in times of financial market uncertainty.<sup>43<\/sup> For risk-averse investors, excessive exposure to bitcoin may increase the probability of losses in extreme market conditions.<sup>44<\/sup> In fact, over time, crypto has become negatively correlated with gold, shattering an article of crypto conventional wisdom, as a June 2022 Bloomberg Opinion column concluded: \u201cGold and Bitcoin are opposite solutions to a lack of faith in currency. Gold is simple and tangible, and supported by thousands of years of history, and no theory. Bitcoin is complex and abstract, supported by 14 years of extreme volatility, with a great theory. Gold requires no infrastructure; Bitcoin requires enormous worldwide infrastructure.\u201d<sup>45<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>In 2021, Wolfe Research studied how crypto and gold respond to shocks in market volatility and found that crypto indeed struggles in risk-off events, dropping materially after market volatility. This challenges the notion that crypto can play a gold-like diversifier role. Gold, on the other hand, offers a better hedge against equity market sell-offs, Wolfe concluded. Even if cryptocurrency is potentially the new favorite for inflation hedging, surpassing gold, it is far from being a safe haven asset like gold.<sup>46<\/sup><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>In difficult times, critiques of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin take on more force. In 2021, before the big losses of this year, Brookings Institution economist Eswar Prasad offered biting criticism headlined \u201cThe Brutal Truth about Bitcoin.\u201d<sup>47<\/sup> Prasad questioned key aspects of the case for cryptocurrencies. He noted that the rise of Bitcoin nurtured \u201ca darknet\u201d of illegal payments in its early days, much as PayPal, with greater legality, enabled the rise of the early eBay. As bitcoin grew, it became \u201ccumbersome, slow and expensive to use.\u201d And increasingly, its much-vaunted anonymity broke down as law enforcement tracked and seized digital wallets of bitcoin in its efforts to combat ransomware.<\/p>\n<p>Prasad continued: \u201cWhile Bitcoin has failed in its stated objectives, it has become a speculative investment. This is puzzling. It has no intrinsic value and is not backed by anything. Bitcoin devotees will tell you that, like gold, its value comes from its scarcity \u2026. But scarcity by itself can hardly be a source of value. Bitcoin investors seem to be relying on the greater fool theory \u2014 all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone willing to buy the asset at an even higher price.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Hyun Song Shin, head of research at the BIS, offered a somewhat more balanced appraisal in a recent speech at the bank\u2019s annual meeting. \u00a0He noted that the crypto sector \u201cprovides a glimpse of promising technological possibilities, but it cannot fulfill all the high-level goals of a digital monetary system. It suffers from inherent shortcomings in stability, efficiency, accountability and integrity that can only be partially addressed by regulation. Fundamentally, crypto and stablecoins lead to a fragmented and fragile monetary system. Importantly, these flaws derive from the underlying economics of incentives, not from technological constraints. And, no less significantly, these flaws would persist even if regulation and oversight were to address the financial instability problems and risk of loss implicit in crypto.\u201d<sup>48<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>All this is not to say that cryptocurrencies and platforms like DeFi or stablecoins are about to disappear. Few financial instruments or technologies ever truly disappear, though they may go through periods of decline or consolidation, much like developments such as the internet, artificial intelligence or even financial instruments such as high-yield bonds. Crypto has, like the internet, undergone a dynamic, rapid and in many ways fascinating evolution. Like many such explosions of change, crypto has also suffered dramatic episodes of culling and reordering.<\/p>\n<p>Will Bitcoin, Ether or hundreds of other coins and tokens survive? No one knows. What we do know is that the underlying digital technology has been remarkably fertile in offering new answers to old questions. The likeliest possibility is that blockchain technology will survive in some form or other.<strong> \u25a3<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Medy Kurniady<\/em><\/strong><em>\u00a0<\/em><em>is a Senior Analyst in the Directorate of Capital Market Enforcement at the Indonesia Financial Service Authority and worked as an Intern at WorldQuant as part of the IFC\u2013Milken Institute Capital Markets Program. He holds a Bachelor of Accounting degree from University of Indonesia.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Awa Njie<\/em><\/strong><em>\u00a0<\/em><em>is a Senior Bank Examiner at the Central Bank of the Gambia and worked as an Intern at WorldQuant as part of the IFC\u2013Milken Institute Capital Markets Program. She holds a MSC Banking and Finance degree from Coventry University in the UK.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref2\" name=\"_ftn2\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref3\" name=\"_ftn3\"><\/a><\/p>\n","endnotes":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Anne Tergesen. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/fidelity-to-allow-retirement-savers-to-put-bitcoin-in-401-k-accounts-11650945661\">Fidelity to Allow Retirement Savers to Put in 401(k) Accounts<\/a>.\u201d <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em>, April 26, 2022.<\/li>\n<li>Lawrence Wintermeyer. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/lawrencewintermeyer\/2021\/11\/11\/crypto-advertisements-are-everywhere-the-consumer-isnt-a-moron\/?sh=4f0671743daf\">Crypto Advertisements Are Everywhere: The Consumer Isn\u2019t a Moron<\/a>.\u201d <em>Forbes<\/em>, November 11, 2021.<\/li>\n<li>Hannah Lang. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/technology\/how-cryptocom-is-betting-big-sports-partnerships-reach-billion-users-2022-02-14\/\">How Crypto.com Is Betting Heavily on Sports Partnerships to Reach a Billion Users<\/a>.\u201d Reuters, February 14, 2022.<\/li>\n<li>MacKenzie Sigalos. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/02\/25\/4point1-million-in-cryptocurrency-funneled-to-ukrainian-military-since-russia-invaded.html#:~:text=%244.1%20million%20in%20cryptocurrency%20funneled%20to%20Ukrainian%20military%20since%20Russia%20invaded,-Published%20Fri%2C%20Feb&amp;text=Donations%20being%20funneled%20to%20the,from%20blockchain%20analytics%20firm%20Elliptic.\">$4.1 Million in Cryptocurrency Funneled to Ukrainian Military Since Russia Invaded<\/a>.\u201d CNBC, February 25, 2022.<\/li>\n<li>Colin Harper. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/articles\/nigerian-banks-shut-them-out-so-these-activists-are-using-bitcoin-to-battle-police\">Nigerian Banks Shut Them Out, so These Activists Are Using Bitcoin to Battle Police Brutality<\/a>.\u201d CoinDesk, October 16, 2020.<\/li>\n<li>Ryan Browne. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/05\/23\/ecb-chief-christine-lagarde-crypto-is-worth-nothing.html#:~:text=European%20Central%20Bank%20President%20Christine%20Lagarde%20thinks%20cryptocurrencies%20aren't,College%20Tour%E2%80%9D%20that%20aired%20Sunday\">Christine Lagarde Says Crypto is Worth Nothing<\/a>.\u201d CNBC, May 23, 2022.<\/li>\n<li>Joshua Oliver. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/02cad9b8-e2eb-43d4-8c18-2e9d34b443fe\">Bitcoin has No Future as a Payments Network, Says FTX Chief<\/a>.\u201d <em>Financial Times<\/em>, May 16, 2022.<\/li>\n<li>World Economic Forum. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www3.weforum.org\/docs\/WEF_The_Macroeconomic_Impact_of_Cryptocurrency_and_Stablecoins_2022.pdf\">The Macroeconomic Impact of Cryptocurrency and Stablecoins<\/a>.\u201d July 2022.<\/li>\n<li>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/finance-and-economics\/2021\/06\/10\/cryptocoins-are-proliferating-wildly-what-are-they-all-for\">Cryptocoins Are Proliferating Wildly. What Are They All For<\/a>?\u201d <em>Economist<\/em>, June 10, 2021.<\/li>\n<li>Gaurav Batra, R\u00e9my Olson, Shilpi Pathak, Nick Santhanam and Harish Soundararajan. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/industries\/advanced-electronics\/our-insights\/blockchain-2-0-whats-in-store-for-the-two-ends-semiconductors-suppliers-and-industrials-consumers\">Blockchain Technology 2.0: What\u2019s in Store for the Two Ends \u2014 Semiconductors (Suppliers) and Industrials (Consumers)?\u201d McKinsey<\/a> &amp; Co., January 18, 2019.<\/li>\n<li>Tara Iyer. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/global-financial-stability-notes\/Issues\/2022\/01\/10\/Cryptic-Connections-511776\">Cryptic Connections: Spillovers between Crypto and Equity Markets<\/a>.\u201d International Monetary Fund, January 11, 2022.<\/li>\n<li>Jonathan Wheatley and Adrienne Klassa. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/1ea829ed-5dde-4f6e-be11-99392bdc0788\">Cryptocurrencies: Developing Countries Provide Fertile Ground<\/a>.\u201d <em>Financial Times<\/em>, September 5, 2021.<\/li>\n<li>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/go.chainalysis.com\/2021-geography-of-crypto.html\">The 2021 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report<\/a>.\u201d October 2021.<\/li>\n<li>Saeed Alzahrani and Tugrul Daim. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu\/etm_fac\/218\/\">Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Adoption Decision: Literature Review<\/a>.\u201d Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology, 2019.<\/li>\n<li>Erik Feyen, Jon Frost, Harish Natarajan and Tara Rice. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bis.org\/publ\/work973.pdf\">What Does Digital Money Mean for Emerging Market and Developing Economies?<\/a>\u201d BIS Working Paper no. 973, October 2021.<\/li>\n<li>Ibid.<\/li>\n<li>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/go.chainalysis.com\/2021-geography-of-crypto.html\">Geography of Cryptocurrency<\/a>.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>James Chen. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/bitcoin-setting-new-record-amid-pandemic-5089606\">Bitcoin Setting New Record Amid Pandemic<\/a>.\u201d Investopedia, December 2, 2020.<\/li>\n<li>Kai Wu, Yin Luo, Javed Jussa, Sheng Wang, Victor Li, Gaurav Rohal, Hallie Martin et al. \u201cMultifactor Risk Models for Cryptocurrency.\u201d Wolfe Research, December 2021.<\/li>\n<li>Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index.<\/li>\n<li>Madana Prathap. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.in\/investment\/news\/bitcoin-limited-supply-has-driven-up-its-value-nearly-90-percent-has-be\/articleshow\/85349471.cms\">Nearly 90% Of All Bitcoin Has Already Been Mined \u2014 Here\u2019s How Its Limited Supply Has Driven Up Its Value<\/a>.\u201d <em>Business Insider India<\/em>, December 24, 2021.<\/li>\n<li>Roy Fantass. <em>Bitcoin: Understanding the Reasons Behind the Hype and How It All Works<\/em>. Self-published, August 27, 2020.<\/li>\n<li>Ark Investment. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/research.ark-invest.com\/hubfs\/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest\/White_Papers\/ARK_BigIdeas2022.pdf\">Big Ideas 2022: Change and Convergence<\/a>.\u201d 2022.<\/li>\n<li>Deloitte. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www2.deloitte.com\/us\/en\/pages\/audit\/articles\/corporates-using-crypto.html\">The Rise of Using Cryptocurrency in Business<\/a>.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Dan Burrows. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/bividend-btcs-bitcoin-dividend-194300330.html\">The \u2018Bividend\u2019: What\u2019s Up with BTCS\u2019s Bitcoin Dividend?<\/a>\u201d Yahoo! Finance, January 6, 2022.<\/li>\n<li>PwC. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pwc.com\/gx\/en\/financial-services\/pdf\/3rd-annual-pwc-elwood-aima-crypto-hedge-fund-report-(may-2021).pdf\">3rd Annual Global Crypto Hedge Fund Report 2021<\/a>.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Peterson Owusu Junior, Anokye M. Adam and George Tweneboah. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/23322039.2020.1804037\">Connectedness of Cryptocurrencies and Gold Returns: Evidence from Frequency-Dependent Quantile<\/a>\u201d <em>Cogent Economics &amp; Finance<\/em> 8, no. 1 (2020).<\/li>\n<li>Barclays. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cib.barclays\/our-insights\/should-the-federal-reserve-create-fedcoin.html\">Should the Federal Reserve Create a Digital Dollar?<\/a>\u201d November 19, 2021.<\/li>\n<li>Deloitte. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www2.deloitte.com\/us\/en\/pages\/audit\/articles\/corporates-using-crypto.html\">The Rise of Using Cryptocurrency in Business<\/a>.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Ed Saiedi, Anders Brostr\u00f6m and Felipe Ruiz. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ideas.repec.org\/a\/kap\/sbusec\/v57y2021i1d10.1007_s11187-019-00309-8.html\">Global Drivers of Cryptocurrency Infrastructure Adoption<\/a>.\u201d <em>Small Business Economics <\/em>57, no. 1 (June 2021).<\/li>\n<li>Dong He, Karl Habermeier, Ross Leckow, Vikram Haksar, Yasmin Almeida, Mikari Kashima, Nadim Kyriakos-Saad et al. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/pubs\/ft\/sdn\/2016\/sdn1603.pdf\">Virtual Currencies and Beyond: Initial Considerations<\/a>.\u201d IMF, January 2016.<\/li>\n<li>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/finance\/The-Tokenisation-of-Assets-and-Potential-Implications-for-Financial-Markets.pdf\">The Tokenisation of Assets and Potential Implications for Financial Markets<\/a>.\u201d OECD Blockchain Discussion Series, 2020.<\/li>\n<li>Tara Iyer.<\/li>\n<li>Robby Houben and Alexander Snyers. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/cmsdata\/150761\/TAX3%20Study%20on%20cryptocurrencies%20and%20blockchain.pdf\">Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain: Legal Context and Implications for Financial Crime, Money Laundering and Tax Evasion<\/a>.\u201d European Parliament Committee on Financial Crimes, Tax Evasion and Tax Avoidance, July 2018.<\/li>\n<li>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pwc.com\/us\/en\/financial-services\/publications\/assets\/pwc-cryptocurrency-evolution.pdf\">Money Is No Object: Understanding the Evolving Cryptocurrency Market.<\/a><u>\u201d 2015.<\/u><\/li>\n<li>Dirk G. Baur and Thomas Dimpfl. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s00181-020-01990-5\">The Volatility of Bitcoin and Its Role as a Medium of Exchange and a Store of Value<\/a>.\u201d <em>Empirical Economics<\/em> 61 (2021).<\/li>\n<li>Tara Iyer.<\/li>\n<li>Omkar Godbole. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2022\/03\/16\/bitcoin-sees-bart-simpson-pattern-during-thinly-traded-asian-session\/\">Bitcoin Sees \u2018Bart Simpson\u2019 Pattern During Thinly Traded Asian Session<\/a>.\u201d CoinDesk, March 16, 2022.<\/li>\n<li>Kai Wu et al.<\/li>\n<li>Benjamin Purvis and Tatiana Darie. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-06-05\/tech-and-crypto-in-peril-as-fed-ends-liquidity-binge-mliv-pulse\">Tech and Crypto in Peril as Fed Ends Liquidity Binge, Survey Shows<\/a>.\u201d Bloomberg, June 5, 2022.<\/li>\n<li>David E. Allen. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1911-8074\/15\/3\/103\">Cryptocurrencies, Diversification and the COVID-19 Pandemic<\/a>.\u201d <em>Journal of Risk and Financial Management<\/em> 15, no. 3 (2022).<\/li>\n<li>Rahma Chemkha, Ahmed BenSa\u00efda, Ahmed Ghorbel and Tahar Tayachi. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC8648322\/\">Hedge and Safe Haven Properties During COVID-19: Evidence from Bitcoin and Gold<\/a>.\u201d <em>Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance<\/em> 82 (2021).<\/li>\n<li>Conghui Chen, Lanlan Liu and Ningru Zhao. \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/nectar.northampton.ac.uk\/13411\/1\/Chen_etal_TFO_2020_Fear_Sentiment_Uncertainty_and_Bitcoin_Price_Dynamics_The_Case_of_COVID_19.pdf\">Fear Sentiment, Uncertainty, and Bitcoin Price Dynamics: The Case of COVID-1<\/a>\u201d <em>Emerging Markets Finance &amp; Trade<\/em> 56, no. 10 (2020).<\/li>\n<li>Walid Bakry, Audil Rashid, Somar Al-Mohamad and Nasser El-Kanj. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1911-8074\/14\/7\/282\">Bitcoin and Portfolio Diversification: A Portfolio Optimization Approach<\/a>.\u201d <em>Journal of Risk and Financial Management<\/em> 14, no. 7 (2021).<\/li>\n<li>Aaron Brown. \u201cBitcoin\u2019s Fair Value Is Tied to Gold and Tech Stocks.\u201d Bloomberg, June 30, 2022.<\/li>\n<li>Kai Wu et al.<\/li>\n<li>Eswar Prasad. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/opinions\/the-brutal-truth-about-bitcoin\/\">The Brutal Truth About Bitcoin<\/a>.\u201d Brookings Institution, July 20, 2021.<\/li>\n<li>Hyun Song Shin. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bis.org\/speeches\/sp220626b.pdf\">The Future Monetary System<\/a>.\u201d Bank for International Settlements, June 26, 2022.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","disclaimer":"<p><em>Thought Leadership articles are prepared by and are the property of WorldQuant, LLC, and are being made available for informational and educational purposes only. This article is not intended to relate to any specific investment strategy or product, nor does this article constitute investment advice or convey an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or other financial products. In addition, the information contained in any article is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal or tax advice. WorldQuant makes no warranties or representations, express or implied, regarding the accuracy or adequacy of any information, and you accept all risks in relying on such information. The views expressed herein are solely those of WorldQuant as of the date of this article and are subject to change without notice. No assurances can be given that any aims, assumptions, expectations and\/or goals described in this article will be realized or that the activities described in the article did or will continue at all or in the same manner as they were conducted during the period covered by this article. WorldQuant does not undertake to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein. WorldQuant and its affiliates are involved in a wide range of securities trading and investment activities, and may have a significant financial interest in one or more securities or financial products discussed in the articles.<\/em><\/p>\n","ideas_panel":{"heading":"Keep reading","subheading":"","articles":[{"ID":590,"post_author":"5","post_date":"2020-02-06 01:59:08","post_date_gmt":"2020-02-06 01:59:08","post_content":"","post_title":"Central Bank <br> Digital Currency:  <br> Promises and Risks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"central-bank-digital-currency-promises-and-risks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-11-24 18:12:22","post_modified_gmt":"2025-11-24 18:12:22","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/wdqnt.wpengine.com\/?post_type=idea&#038;p=590","menu_order":0,"post_type":"idea","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":595,"post_author":"5","post_date":"2021-08-27 02:11:18","post_date_gmt":"2021-08-27 02:11:18","post_content":"","post_title":"Quantum Computing\u2019s Challenge to Cryptography","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"quantum-computings-challenge-to-cryptography","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-11-24 18:16:14","post_modified_gmt":"2025-11-24 18:16:14","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/wdqnt.wpengine.com\/?post_type=idea&#038;p=595","menu_order":0,"post_type":"idea","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":568,"post_author":"5","post_date":"2022-02-28 22:49:10","post_date_gmt":"2022-02-28 22:49:10","post_content":"","post_title":"The Pandemic and <br> an African Reset","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-pandemic-and-an-african-reset","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2022-04-24 20:55:38","post_modified_gmt":"2022-04-24 20:55:38","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/wdqnt.wpengine.com\/?post_type=idea&#038;p=568","menu_order":0,"post_type":"idea","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"see_more_link":""},"pdf_file":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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